Export “guarantee share” basically completes the trade balance and continues to improve

Yao Jian, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, said at a regular press conference on December 16 that China’s foreign trade showed signs of improvement in November. The export insurance market share target set at the beginning of this year was basically completed, and the trade balance situation is expected to continue to improve.

According to customs statistics, China’s import and export volume increased by 9.8% year-on-year in November, achieving the first positive growth during the year. Exports in a single month exceeded 100 billion US dollars for five consecutive months, and imports rebounded significantly.

The data released by the Ministry of Commerce on the 16th further shows the positive signs of China's foreign trade development: from January to November, the total import and export value of the country was 1,964 billion US dollars, and the cumulative import and export decline has narrowed from 29.9% in January to November. 17.5%. The processing trade, which occupied half of China's exports, ended a negative growth of 12 months and increased by 4.4% in November. Exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 3.2%, of which integrated circuits and color TV sets increased by over 30%.

"This is not only affected by the slow recovery of the international market, but also shows that the trade facilitation measures introduced by China this year have achieved remarkable results." Yao Jian said, "In the context of the overall shrinkage of external demand, the global market share of China's products is currently maintained at 9%. Around the beginning, the export insurance market share target set at the beginning of the year was basically achieved."

Regarding the future development of foreign trade, Yao Jian said frankly that the current monthly recovery of imports and exports is a recovery growth achieved at a lower base. He predicted that the impact of the financial crisis on China's foreign trade will continue for two to three years, which means that China will not be able to return to the trade scale in 2008 until around 2011.

Li Jian, a researcher at the Trade Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that the current global recovery is insufficient, the unemployment rate of major economies is high, financial institutions' ability to finance the real economy is weakened, and the difficulty of foreign demand encountered in China's foreign trade is difficult to reverse in the short term.

Recent surveys conducted by the Ministry of Commerce in coastal provinces and cities also show that export orders are still characterized by “single price and low price”. "The market prospects of major trading partners are not clear. China needs to maintain continuity and stability in taxation, fiscal, monetary and other policies, and create a stable policy environment for enterprises to open up international markets." Yao Jian said.

In November, China imported 94.56 billion US dollars, an increase of 26.7%. Yao Jian believes that the rapid recovery of imports is mainly driven by the recovery of domestic demand, especially the import of bulk raw materials is growing rapidly.

Statistics show that from January to November, the import volume of iron ore, plastic raw materials, pulp, copper and copper, aluminum and aluminum in China increased by 38.4%, 33.3%, 43.5%, 66.8% and 172.2% respectively.

Yao Jian said that since the beginning of this year, China's trade surplus has dropped by more than 30%. Imports will continue to grow in the next few months, and the trade surplus will continue to narrow. "This will further improve the relationship between China and some trading partners," Yao Jian said.

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