Cotton spreads inside and outside cotton spread or spread further

The basic situation of domestic and foreign cotton price quotes last week was: basically continuing the trend of the previous week, cotton prices inside and outside the country continued to go in the opposite direction. The cotton price difference between inside and outside is kept above 4,000 yuan/ton.

The spot lint price in the Mainland continued to increase slightly, but the increase was small and remained basically stable. CNCottonB last Friday was 18,759 yuan / ton, week up and down 2 yuan / ton. The CCindex328 index was 18,651 yuan/ton on Friday and was 14 yuan/ton higher on the week.

Zheng cotton ** main contract price increases, Zheng cotton ** 1301 last week rose 155 yuan / ton. Mainly due to the announcement of the suspension of deposit notice issued by relevant departments on Monday, which caused the next day's ** surge. As a result, domestic cotton's basis difference has become stronger in the week before, but it has weakened and the base difference has reached below -1000.

Out of the spot cotton prices last week, the overall trend first rose and then fell, the overall is still a decline, the decline is greater than the domestic spot lint growth, but the price rose on Friday. CotLookA fell 0.8 cents/lb last week, and 1% customs prices fell 127 yuan/ton. The FCIndexM index fell 0.39 cents/lb.

New York Cotton ** main contract continued to fall. On September 14, the Fed launched the QE3 plan to boost the commodity market. ICE** opened at the lowest price in the day, then went all the way higher, and basically recovered all the declines since this week. Foreign analysts said that although the fundamentals of the cotton market are still not good, cotton prices are completely controlled by the external market. However, with the influence of various negative atmospheres of the fundamentals being too strong, the ICE futures cotton eventually failed to rise again. This is also the same as our previous expectation. In the face of weak fundamentals, the macroscopic positive stimulus will not last long. At present, the international cotton market is dominated by pessimistic sentiment. The negative factors considered include: the latest US cotton export report is not as good as expected, and the data show that the slowdown in China's manufacturing industry in September and the new cotton in the northern hemisphere's cotton country were listed one after another, causing increased supply pressure.

It was precisely because of the continuing rise in cotton and the decrease in foreign cotton, and the decline in foreign cotton was greater than the increase in domestic cotton. Therefore, the difference between cotton prices inside and outside China expanded to reach 4,190 yuan/ton last Friday, but it fell from the previous week.

In addition, Zheng cotton ** far month contract 1305 and the price difference between the previous month contract 1301 has a downward trend, the price difference is 85.

Seed Cotton Acquisition Quotes The new domestic cotton is currently listed and the listing process has been smooth.

Although the purchase price of seed cotton has been rising strongly since the start of storage, there was a slight correction in last week, but the margin was extremely small and basically stabilized. The reference price for the purchase of seed cotton in the Mainland was 8.72 on Friday, a decrease of 0.01 from the previous Monday. Xinjiang's seed cotton acquisition reference price was 8.94, which was the same as at the beginning of the week. The cost of lint processing by cotton processing companies increased last week. The reference cost price for Friday was RMB 20014 per ton, but it decreased from the previous week.

Affected by several heavy rainfalls in late July, early August and late September, the cotton production and quality of the main cotton producing areas in Shandong Province have been reduced, and the output has been reduced by more than 10%. It is estimated that there will be about 460 pounds of seed cotton. At present, Texas is mainly grade 4 and grade 5 cotton. Due to the high cost of previous acquisitions, some companies have stopped watching in recent days.

In the third week, the volume of deposits was still small, and the storage companies gradually increased.

Fundamental News 1, US Cotton Export Weekly Report Shows China's Demand Pessimistic On September 20, 2012, the US Department of Agriculture announced the US Cotton Export Report for September 7-13, 2012. During the week, the 2012/13 annual U.S. land cotton export contract amounted to 44,700 tons, and the main buyers were China, Turkey, Mexico, and Peru. In mainland China, there was a net signing of 19,414 tons in the week, which was a 68% decrease from the previous week, accounting for 43% of the total contracted volume; shipments of 21,092 tons, an increase of 134% over the previous week, accounted for 52% of the total shipments.

During the week, the net contracted Pima cotton export volume for 2012/13 was 0.32 million tons. The main buyers were India, China (0.06 million tons), Egypt and Honduras. Pima cotton shipment volume was 0.26 million tons, mainly shipped to India, Pakistan, China (0.05 million tons) and Bangladesh.

Because the results of the US cotton export weekly report did not reach the previous expectations, it caused bearish pressure on the cotton price, which made the international cotton market produce pessimistic expectations for the future demand of cotton.

2. Listed cotton seeds from the Northern Hemisphere The successive listing of cotton seeds in September was the period when cotton in the northern hemisphere was launched. With the large number of new cotton market, the cotton market will bring no small supply pressure.

3. According to reports, China will no longer issue additional cotton import quotas this year, which will also cause greater pressure on the international cotton market.

Summary: At present, the cotton market at home and abroad is still running in the opposite direction. The main reason is that the trend of cotton market inside and outside is dominated by different factors. The fundamentals of the global cotton market are still bearish, and there is more bearishness in cotton in the latter period. However, the domestic market still shows resilience under the protection of storage and storage policies, and the spread of cotton prices both inside and outside the country may increase.

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