The February report released by the American Cotton Company believes that global inventory pressure will continue to have an adverse impact on international cotton prices in the coming year.
On February 7, the National Cotton Council of the United States (NCC) released the results of a survey of cotton planters in the United States. The results show that in the 2015/16 US, the cotton acreage will decrease by 14.6% year-on-year, from 11 million to 9.4 million hectares. The planting area of ​​upland cotton is expected to decline by 15.2% from 10.8 million hectares to 9.2 million hectares, while the planting area of ​​Pima will increase by 22.8%, from 192,000 to 236,000 hectares. Taking into account the planting area, average yield, and abandonment rate, NCC expects US production of 3.048 million tons in 2015/16.
If China continues to control cotton import quotas in 2015/16, it is expected that US cotton exports will approach the current level (2.33 million tons). Although the USDA lowered the amount of cotton used in US factories in its February report, due to new mills being invested, the amount of cotton used in the United States in the next year will increase, and is expected to be between 806,000 and 870,000 tons. A steady export volume and a slight increase in domestic cotton consumption indicate that the US/US cotton export supply in 2015/16 may be close to 3.157 million tons.
Since the export supply is only slightly higher than NCC's forecast for next year's output, the ending stocks in 2015/16 are expected to be slightly lower than the ending stocks for the current year. According to USDA's forecast, US cotton ending stocks will increase 70% year-on-year (from 544,000 tons to 914,000 tons) this year. The sharp increase in the supply of US cotton has exerted downward pressure on US cotton prices. Even though the global ending stocks in 2015/16 decreased slightly, with the increase in US cotton ending stocks, inventory fluctuations in the world's largest cotton exporting countries will continue to exert downward pressure on global cotton prices.
However, just as in the past few years, rainfall in western Texas and China’s cotton import demand will be an important factor affecting US cotton inventories and global cotton prices.
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